ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 3:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 18 games
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 16 games
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 13 games
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 13 games
Chenoften banned
Skem · 12 games
Visageoften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
Wildcard Gaming
Magnussignature
YamSun · 12 games
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 8 games
Muertasignature
Bignum · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 5 games
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 5 games
Lycanoften banned
Fayde · 5 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Fayde · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
483 picks · 415 bans
Clockwerk
443 picks · 576 bans
Lion
426 picks · 229 bans
Batrider
424 picks · 540 bans
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 728 bans
Phoenix
413 picks · 485 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 593 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 941 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 69%
Hero pool strength55% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total75% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:16
Shopify Rebellion 65%Wildcard Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightTimado
GyrocopterYamSun
InvokerYopaj
Earth SpiritRCY
Lycanmangekyou
TidehunterFayde
LichSkem
Crystal MaidenSpeeed
Nyx AssassinHellscream
MuertaBignum
Game 2prediction missed29:35
Shopify Rebellion 64%Wildcard Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 58:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterTimado
TerrorbladeFayde
Earth SpiritYopaj
InvokerRCY
Doommangekyou
TinyYamSun
BatriderHellscream
ChenSpeeed
LichSkem
Dark WillowBignum
Game 3prediction correct27:7
Shopify Rebellion 64%Wildcard Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightTimado
TerrorbladeFayde
Lycanmangekyou
GyrocopterYamSun
Ember SpiritYopaj
Earth SpiritRCY
EnchantressSkem
TinkerSpeeed
LionHellscream
Bounty HunterBignum
Game 4prediction correct29:19
Shopify Rebellion 63%Wildcard Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 32:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingTimado
Phantom AssassinYamSun
TinyYopaj
PangolierRCY
Beastmastermangekyou
MagnusFayde
LichSkem
Crystal MaidenSpeeed
Shadow DemonHellscream
MuertaBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 75%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4