DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 3:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Wildcard Gamingloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
Zeussignature
Skem · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 11 games
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 11 games
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 10 games
Wildcard Gaming
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 15 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 12 games
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 11 games
Batridersignature
Bignum · 10 games
Gyrocoptersignature
YamSun · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
556 picks · 792 bans
Muerta
451 picks · 328 bans
Phoenix
439 picks · 706 bans
Phantom Assassin
416 picks · 745 bans
Clockwerk
411 picks · 402 bans
Bristleback
402 picks · 893 bans
Magnus
399 picks · 1067 bans
Pangolier
385 picks · 530 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total76% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:14
Shopify Rebellion 66%Wildcard Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 39:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinTimado
MedusaYamSun
MarsPakazs
Monkey KingRCY
PangolierYopaj
TidehunterFayde
ChenSkem
VenomancerSpeeed
Keeper of the LightHellscream
TinyBignum
Game 2prediction correct26:15
Shopify Rebellion 66%Wildcard Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 35:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanPakazs
MedusaYamSun
BristlebackTimado
PangolierRCY
TinyYopaj
BeastmasterFayde
BaneSkem
Night StalkerBignum
RingmasterHellscream
JakiroSpeeed
Game 3prediction missed25:37
Shopify Rebellion 64%Wildcard Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 56:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingTimado
Storm SpiritRCY
KunkkaPakazs
TinyYamSun
PuckYopaj
DawnbreakerFayde
RingmasterHellscream
Keeper of the LightBignum
BaneSkem
ChenSpeeed
Game 4prediction missed16:36
Shopify Rebellion 66%Wildcard Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterTimado
TerrorbladeYamSun
TidehunterPakazs
BeastmasterRCY
TinyYopaj
Sand KingFayde
Ancient ApparitionSkem
JakiroSpeeed
RingmasterHellscream
Keeper of the LightBignum
Game 5prediction correct17:18
Shopify Rebellion 66%Wildcard Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 32:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingTimado
TerrorbladeYamSun
PuckYopaj
Storm SpiritRCY
Centaur WarrunnerPakazs
Legion CommanderFayde
Keeper of the LightHellscream
SilencerSpeeed
JakiroSkem
TuskBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 76%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5