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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 12 games
83%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 11 games
73%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
erase · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 10 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 9 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Rein · 7 games
86%
Puck
Pucksignature
erase · 6 games
83%
Rubick
Rubick
emptiness · 6 games
33%

B8 Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 14 games
86%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
StoneBank · 13 games
62%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 12 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
Mary_y · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Dendi · 10 games
70%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
272 picks · 418 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
231 picks · 109 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
228 picks · 322 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
220 picks · 452 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
214 picks · 317 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
197 picks · 514 bans
60%
Tusk
Tusk
194 picks · 163 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
190 picks · 408 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:41
SIBE Team 42%B8 Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 1:18:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painряф^^
54% · 67 games44% · 28 games
ZeusDendi
Zeus
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordnesfeer
57% · 50 games50% · 50 games
LunaShad
Luna
Primal Beast
Primal Beastklassnokruto
55% · 224 games41% · 27 games
Wraith KingStoneBank
Wraith King
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRein
42% · 31 game53% · 32 games
ChenMary_y
Chen
Lion
Lionemptiness
47% · 79 games48% · 314 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed39:28
SIBE Team 39%B8 Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 44:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svennesfeer
51% · 78 games51% · 50 games
SpectreShad
Spectre
Dazzle
Dazzleряф^^
51% · 43 games51% · 63 games
Queen of PainDendi
Queen of Pain
Magnus
Magnusklassnokruto
50% · 109 games56% · 32 games
Wraith KingStoneBank
Wraith King
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkemptiness
37% · 48 games52% · 102 games
EnchantressMary_y
Enchantress
Oracle
OracleRein
53% · 36 games50% · 67 games
GrimstrokeCTOMAHEH1
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 65%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2