Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamloss 1:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Dragon Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 30 games
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 22 games
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 16 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 12 games
Dragon Esports
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Norma · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
paw · 2 games
Zeusoften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
448 picks · 683 bans
Crystal Maiden
406 picks · 187 bans
Gyrocopter
398 picks · 423 bans
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 535 bans
Batrider
345 picks · 558 bans
Rubick
343 picks · 171 bans
Pangolier
336 picks · 637 bans
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 818 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:39
SIBE Team 53%Dragon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 47:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokerselfhate
Gyrocopterpaw
Windrangerряф^^
Pangolierdualrazee
WeaverSOhY
UnderlordNorma
Disruptorsunset
Game 2prediction missed19:43
SIBE Team 53%Dragon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 37:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knightselfhate
Weaverpaw
Void Spiritряф^^
PangolierNorma
Crystal MaidenSOhY
Windrangerdualrazee
Pudgesunset
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2