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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamloss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KZ TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 8 games
38%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
43%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
erase · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 6 games
17%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
0%

KZ TEAM

Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 14 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 14 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mr. Luck · 13 games
46%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 13 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Mr. Luck · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tiny
W1sh- · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
440 picks · 212 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
337 picks · 364 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 525 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
312 picks · 539 bans
52%
Morphling
Morphling
299 picks · 591 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
293 picks · 486 bans
46%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
280 picks · 669 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
258 picks · 512 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:38
SIBE Team 37%KZ TEAM 63%
The model gave 63% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordnesfeer
41% · 26 games37% · 46 games
Phantom AssassinNande
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
58% · 112 games55% · 67 games
EarthshakerW1sh-
Earthshaker
Brewmaster
Brewmasterklassnokruto
55% · 39 games56% · 47 games
Legion CommanderSkyLark
Legion Commander
Dark Willow
Dark Willowemptiness
51% · 56 games43% · 60 games
Vengeful SpiritRESPECT
Vengeful Spirit
Warlock
WarlockRein
60% · 24 games37% · 37 games
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed39:21
SIBE Team 37%KZ TEAM 63%
The model gave 63% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 52:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinnesfeer
50% · 178 games50% · 149 games
Naga SirenNande
Naga Siren
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
56% · 409 games41% · 105 games
EarthshakerW1sh-
Earthshaker
Primal Beast
Primal Beastklassnokruto
57% · 317 games50% · 291 game
DoomSkyLark
Doom
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRein
54% · 283 games44% · 622 games
RubickRESPECT
Rubick
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeemptiness
56% · 41 game40% · 61 game
OracleSsaSpartan
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct18:48
SIBE Team 36%KZ TEAM 64%
The model gave 64% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 35:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokererase
32% · 91 game50% · 145 games
Monkey KingNande
Monkey King
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinnesfeer
52% · 153 games52% · 263 games
PangolierW1sh-
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark Seerklassnokruto
54% · 155 games53% · 263 games
BeastmasterSkyLark
Beastmaster
Doom
Doomemptiness
48% · 359 games55% · 74 games
Shadow DemonSsaSpartan
Shadow Demon
Warlock
WarlockRein
55% · 15 games52% · 28 games
GrimstrokeRESPECT
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 75%
Series resultKZ TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3