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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 13 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 12 games
83%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 9 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
emptiness · 8 games
25%
Puck
Pucksignature
erase · 7 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Rein · 7 games
86%

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
35%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Astral · 13 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 12 games
42%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Otaker · 11 games
64%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
73%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 436 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
231 picks · 321 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
219 picks · 324 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
208 picks · 106 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
203 picks · 181 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
197 picks · 273 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
196 picks · 397 bans
55%
Kunkka
Kunkka
184 picks · 523 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% SIBE Team
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total64% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:34
SIBE Team 42%KZ TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 55:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusanesfeer
57% · 68 games46% · 206 games
Monkey KingSupream^
Monkey King
Timbersaw
Timbersawряф^^
54% · 148 games47% · 70 games
Vengeful SpiritSkyLark
Vengeful Spirit
Pudge
Pudgeklassnokruto
49% · 44 games58% · 57 games
Troll WarlordOtaker
Troll Warlord
Lion
LionRein
56% · 74 games56% · 329 games
TinyAstral
Tiny
Rubick
Rubickqueezy
42% · 592 games40% · 264 games
TuskSsaSpartan
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed67:25
SIBE Team 42%KZ TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidnesfeer
58% · 149 games48% · 108 games
MedusaOtaker
Medusa
Pangolier
Pangolierряф^^
57% · 292 games46% · 65 games
Vengeful SpiritSkyLark
Vengeful Spirit
Weaver
Weaverqueezy
49% · 87 games48% · 133 games
MagnusSupream^
Magnus
Pudge
Pudgeklassnokruto
51% · 29 games46% · 111 games
MuertaAstral
Muerta
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRein
55% · 99 games41% · 239 games
TuskSsaSpartan
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 64%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2