Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamloss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Matreshka Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SIBE Team
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 8 games
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
Doomoften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
erase · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 5 games
Matreshka Team
Techiesoften banned
dark · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Lagoona · 6 games
Rubick
Lagoona · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Retsu · 6 games
Windrangeroften banned
Retsu · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
meLes · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
688 picks · 475 bans
Techies
602 picks · 638 bans
Doom
569 picks · 1109 bans
Disruptor
526 picks · 496 bans
Beastmaster
519 picks · 1232 bans
Ember Spirit
480 picks · 1043 bans
Enchantress
460 picks · 677 bans
Pangolier
450 picks · 918 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total64% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:14
SIBE Team 41%Matreshka Team 59%
The model gave 59% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 38:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puckerase
MuertaRetsu
Broodmothernesfeer
Dark SeermeLes
Primal Beastklassnokruto
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
Techiesvelheor
EnchantressLagoona
62% · 15 games
Witch Doctordark
Game 2prediction correct21:32
SIBE Team 43%Matreshka Team 57%
The model gave 57% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingnesfeer
MuertaRetsu
Tinyerase
TimbersawNattyNarwhal
Dark Seerklassnokruto
EnigmameLes
Techiesvelheor
RubickLagoona
47% · 335 games
Clockwerkdark
Game 3prediction correct19:28
SIBE Team 42%Matreshka Team 58%
The model gave 58% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 34:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Magenesfeer
MedusaRetsu
Storm Spiriterase
AxemeLes
Pangolierklassnokruto
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Rubickvelheor
Keeper of the LightLagoona
50% · 270 games
Techiesdark
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 64%
Series resultMatreshka Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3