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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MoneyMakersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 8 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 8 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
y0nd · 8 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
erase · 7 games
71%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
klassnokruto · 6 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
klassnokruto · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
erase · 6 games
67%

MoneyMakers

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 19 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 12 games
42%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 12 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Bignum · 10 games
30%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 9 games
44%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
329 picks · 160 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
247 picks · 322 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
209 picks · 422 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
205 picks · 311 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
200 picks · 376 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
197 picks · 429 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
196 picks · 113 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
188 picks · 283 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% SIBE Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:27
SIBE Team 51%MoneyMakers 49%
The model gave 51% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 48:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinnesfeer
43% · 66 games56% · 50 games
Naga SirenLukas
Naga Siren
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiriterase
48% · 91 game60% · 166 games
PangolierEgor
Pangolier
Tidehunter
Tidehunterklassnokruto
43% · 124 games54% · 101 game
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Grimstroke
Grimstrokequeezy
40% · 83 games44% · 29 games
AxeBb3px
Axe
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritRein
52% · 78 games53% · 96 games
DisruptorCeMaTheSlayeR
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct24:4
SIBE Team 57%MoneyMakers 43%
The model gave 57% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 18:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarknesfeer
54% · 99 games42% · 57 games
Phantom AssassinLukas
Phantom Assassin
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerklassnokruto
51% · 24 games45% · 68 games
Earth SpiritEgor
Earth Spirit
Puck
Puckerase
59% · 95 games40% · 87 games
TidehunterBb3px
Tidehunter
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
52% · 79 games50% · 106 games
Shadow DemonBignum
Shadow Demon
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRein
61% · 147 games42% · 126 games
PhoenixCeMaTheSlayeR
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 56%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2