Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Storm Strikersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SIBE Team
Alchemistoften banned
nesfeer · 1 game
Clockwerk
Arti_Shock · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
klassnokruto · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
erase · 1 game
Techies
y0nd · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 1 game
Storm Strikers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
747 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 471 bans
Beastmaster
421 picks · 1014 bans
Tiny
405 picks · 376 bans
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 956 bans
Doom
392 picks · 630 bans
Undying
388 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Storm Strikers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Storm Strikers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:20
SIBE Team 44%Storm Strikers 56%
The model gave 56% on Storm Strikers — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 36:16.
Game 2prediction missed40:18
SIBE Team 44%Storm Strikers 56%
The model gave 56% on Storm Strikers — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 38:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteStorm Strikers · 56%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2