SIBE Team vs Team Arava — prediction PCMV# · Dota 2

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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3

result vs prediction

SIBE Teamwin 2:1

series probability

52%48%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Team Aravaloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Bloodseekeroften banned

nesfeer · 8 games

38%

Pugnaoften banned

y0nd · 7 games

43%

Ember Spiritsignature

erase · 6 games

67%

Skywrath Mage

y0nd · 6 games

50%

Storm Spiritoften banned

erase · 6 games

17%

Undyingoften banned

Arti_Shock · 6 games

33%

Batrideroften banned

klassnokruto · 5 games

40%

Beastmasteroften banned

klassnokruto · 5 games

Team Arava

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

442 picks · 211 bans

47%

Techies

353 picks · 382 bans

51%

Ember Spirit

338 picks · 542 bans

51%

Batrider

324 picks · 561 bans

52%

Morphling

303 picks · 609 bans

51%

Undying

294 picks · 491 bans

46%

Timbersaw

287 picks · 687 bans

49%

Storm Spirit

264 picks · 533 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%

Hero pool strength54% Team Arava

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total52% SIBE Team

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct20:33

SIBE Team 49%Team Arava 51%

The model gave 51% on Team Arava — the game was taken by Team Arava in 34:25.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo