RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamloss 1:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team NextUploss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 31 game
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 24 games
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
sunset · 16 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 14 games
Dark Willowoften banned
sunset · 13 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 13 games
Team NextUp
Batrideroften banned
VaniLLl · 12 games
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 9 games
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
382 picks · 638 bans
Gyrocopter
325 picks · 369 bans
Dark Willow
320 picks · 350 bans
Clockwerk
313 picks · 442 bans
Weaver
300 picks · 536 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 386 bans
Pangolier
290 picks · 539 bans
Crystal Maiden
288 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:23
SIBE Team 49%Team NextUp 51%
The model gave 51% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 37:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knightselfhate
Sven7jesu
Rubickряф^^
Templar AssassinMirage
Monkey Kingsunset
Underlordzvёzd
JakiroSOhY
Elder TitanVaniLLl
Game 2prediction correct21:47
SIBE Team 47%Team NextUp 53%
The model gave 53% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassinselfhate
Beastmasterzvёzd
Ember Spiritряф^^
Ursa7jesu
SvenSOhY
Dragon KnightMirage
Batridersunset
Elder TitanVaniLLl
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2