Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Sigma.YNTloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bald Dynastywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sigma.YNT
Tiny
queezy · 22 games
Rubick
queezy · 20 games
Treant Protector
VANSKOR · 17 games
Doomsignature
kur0patbI4 · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
kur0patbI4 · 11 games
Broodmotheroften banned
kur0patbI4 · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
foryou · 10 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
Bald Dynasty
Pangolieroften banned
ряф^^ · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
ряф^^ · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
fortniteMan · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
726 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
560 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
437 picks · 1053 bans
Doom
425 picks · 698 bans
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 999 bans
Tiny
387 picks · 372 bans
Undying
383 picks · 606 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Bald Dynasty
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Bald Dynasty
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:37
Sigma.YNT 48%Bald Dynasty 52%
The model gave 52% on Bald Dynasty — the game was taken by Bald Dynasty in 46:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritDodren
TimbersawfortniteMan
MedusaArrOw
Dark Willowряф^^
Monkey Kingkur0patbI4
TechiesRein
Vengeful SpiritVANSKOR
Game 2prediction correct34:33
Sigma.YNT 47%Bald Dynasty 53%
The model gave 53% on Bald Dynasty — the game was taken by Bald Dynasty in 52:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritDodren
Pangolierряф^^
Magnuskur0patbI4
AxefortniteMan
Keeper of the LightArrOw
Skywrath MageRein
OracleVANSKOR
Model check result
Model favoriteBald Dynasty · 53%
Series resultBald Dynasty 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2