Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Sigma.YNTloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Matreshka Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sigma.YNT
Tiny
kur0patbI4 · 30 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
dSa · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 21 game
Batridersignature
toshiyb · 16 games
Marcioften banned
kur0patbI4 · 15 games
Dazzle
dSa · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
toshiyb · 14 games
Puckoften banned
erase · 14 games
Matreshka Team
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 1 game
Doomoften banned
egxrdemxn · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 1 game
Rubick
Lagoona · 1 game
Silenceroften banned
JANTER · 1 game
Tiny
Lagoona · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
359 picks · 336 bans
Tusk
312 picks · 291 bans
Marci
274 picks · 516 bans
Undying
254 picks · 463 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 553 bans
Primal Beast
232 picks · 594 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 341 bans
Snapfire
214 picks · 114 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 78%
Hero pool strength56% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:33
Sigma.YNT 42%Matreshka Team 58%
The model gave 58% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingv1olent-
UrsaRetsu
Invokerforyou
Lycanegxrdemxn
Broodmotherkur0patbI4
Primal BeastLagoona
Rubickqueezy
Crystal MaidenJANTER
TuskVANSKOR
Game 2prediction correct
Sigma.YNT 41%Matreshka Team 59%
The model gave 59% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 59%
Series resultMatreshka Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2