Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkloss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lavawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Silk
Doomoften banned
payk · 2 games
Linaoften banned
payk · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
payk · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
payk · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
payk · 1 game
Sven
payk · 1 game
Lava
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Lich
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
371 picks · 355 bans
Tusk
338 picks · 321 bans
Marci
262 picks · 497 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 576 bans
Undying
246 picks · 459 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 600 bans
Snapfire
222 picks · 129 bans
Crystal Maiden
218 picks · 140 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 73%
Hero pool strength53% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:26
Silk 40%Lava 60%
The model gave 60% on Lava — the game was taken by Silk in 52:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidpayk
DawnbreakerJimmyCoff666
Game 2prediction correct13:40
Silk 41%Lava 59%
The model gave 59% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 34:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingpayk
DawnbreakerJimmyCoff666
Game 3prediction correct4:24
Silk 39%Lava 61%
The model gave 61% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 25:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladepayk
DawnbreakerJimmyCoff666
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 64%
Series resultLava 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3