Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkwin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TRocketloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Silk
Linaoften banned
payk · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
payk · 1 game
Sven
payk · 1 game
TRocket
Beastmasteroften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Pamplona · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Pamplona · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
358 picks · 344 bans
Tusk
317 picks · 297 bans
Marci
273 picks · 516 bans
Undying
252 picks · 464 bans
Pangolier
248 picks · 556 bans
Primal Beast
234 picks · 593 bans
Shadow Fiend
222 picks · 340 bans
Snapfire
216 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% TRocket
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Silk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:11
Silk 50%TRocket 50%
The model gave 50% on TRocket — the game was taken by Silk in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linapayk
BroodmotherGreedy
53% · 26 games
DawnbreakerPamplona
Game 2prediction correct27:36
Silk 48%TRocket 52%
The model gave 52% on TRocket — the game was taken by TRocket in 44:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerpayk
RazorGreedy
53% · 11 games
Nyx AssassinPamplona
Game 3prediction missed42:19
Silk 47%TRocket 53%
The model gave 53% on TRocket — the game was taken by Silk in 48:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniperpayk
BroodmotherGreedy
63% · 12 games
UndyingPamplona
Model check result
Model favoriteSilk · 52%
Series resultSilk 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3