Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
x5 Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Silk
Doomoften banned
payk · 2 games
Linaoften banned
payk · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
payk · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
payk · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Marci
Lissex · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
payk · 1 game
x5 Gaming
Mirana
Wij · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
FCR · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
Benny · 1 game
Witch Doctor
FCR · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
792 picks · 546 bans
Tiny
570 picks · 398 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
525 picks · 436 bans
Nature's Prophet
446 picks · 726 bans
Death Prophet
415 picks · 803 bans
Snapfire
407 picks · 295 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 851 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 75%
Hero pool strength56% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% x5 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:5
Silk 51%x5 Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 37:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanLissex
AbaddonBenny
50% · 12 games
Dragon KnightFCR
31% · 9 games
IoWij
Game 2prediction correct11:22
Silk 50%x5 Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawLissex
Templar AssassinBenny
50% · 12 games
Witch DoctorFCR
43% · 17 games
AbaddonWij
Game 3prediction correct27:24
Silk 49%x5 Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 41:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciLissex
AbaddonBenny
53% · 62 games
EnchantressFCR
62% · 59 games
MiranaWij
Model check result
Model favoritex5 Gaming · 50%
Series resultx5 Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3