Silk vs x5 Gaming — prediction DS2ОО · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

Silkloss 1:2

series probability

53%47%

probability at match start · final 1:2

x5 Gamingwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Silk

No games played over 6 months.

x5 Gaming

Beastmasteroften banned

mini-` · 1 game

Muerta

mini-` · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

559 picks · 670 bans

50%

Tusk

506 picks · 335 bans

49%

Dragon Knight

481 picks · 660 bans

49%

Centaur Warrunner

445 picks · 529 bans

55%

Snapfire

424 picks · 150 bans

50%

Hoodwink

405 picks · 195 bans

53%

Mars

374 picks · 516 bans

49%

Gyrocopter

367 picks · 499 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength57% Silk

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total53% Silk

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed15:30

Silk 54%x5 Gaming 46%

The model gave 54% on Silk — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 45:38.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo