BTS Pro Series Season 9. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Arkosh Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Arkosh Gaming
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Lion
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
259 picks · 341 bans
Lion
254 picks · 147 bans
Tidehunter
250 picks · 385 bans
Lina
240 picks · 506 bans
Monkey King
226 picks · 496 bans
Pangolier
224 picks · 314 bans
Tiny
219 picks · 292 bans
Void Spirit
214 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 20%
Hero pool strength50% Arkosh Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:17
simply TOOBASED 40%Arkosh Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 33:37.
Game 2prediction correct39:17
simply TOOBASED 40%Arkosh Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 32:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 60%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2