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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
bumble bEE'swin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

simply TOOBASED

No games played over 6 months.

bumble bEE's

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Sneyking · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ryoya · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Sneyking · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Moo · 6 games
83%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
ppd · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Ryoya · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
468 picks · 188 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
374 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 589 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
359 picks · 884 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
337 picks · 305 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
325 picks · 245 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 435 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 404 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% bumble bEE's
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:25
simply TOOBASED 49%bumble bEE's 51%
The model gave 51% on bumble bEE's — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 42:05.
Game 2prediction correct10:26
simply TOOBASED 49%bumble bEE's 51%
The model gave 51% on bumble bEE's — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 35:46.
Game 3prediction correct15:39
simply TOOBASED 49%bumble bEE's 51%
The model gave 51% on bumble bEE's — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 1:04:25.
Model check result
Model favoritebumble bEE's · 51%
Series resultbumble bEE's 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3