Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Happy Sealsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Happy Seals
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
564 picks · 467 bans
Mars
434 picks · 672 bans
Dragon Knight
412 picks · 532 bans
Bane
391 picks · 263 bans
Puck
382 picks · 847 bans
Pangolier
339 picks · 560 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 638 bans
Snapfire
328 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 19%
Hero pool strength50% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:25
simply TOOBASED 68%Happy Seals 32%
The model gave 68% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 41:11.
Game 2prediction missed28:10
simply TOOBASED 68%Happy Seals 32%
The model gave 68% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 34:54.
Game 3prediction missed22:38
simply TOOBASED 68%Happy Seals 32%
The model gave 68% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 34:16.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 68%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3