Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Jiang Huloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Jiang Hu
Mirana
txhyoo1 · 2 games
Puckoften banned
P1 · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
P1 · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
P1 · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
P1 · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
txhyoo1 · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
P1 · 1 game
Tiny
P1 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
288 picks · 575 bans
Void Spirit
258 picks · 325 bans
Mars
228 picks · 405 bans
Earth Spirit
214 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
187 picks · 343 bans
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 575 bans
Wraith King
181 picks · 235 bans
Phoenix
179 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 22%
Hero pool strength52% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
simply TOOBASED 90%Jiang Hu 10%
The model gave 90% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 90%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1