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BTS Pro Series Season 6. Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Cutwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

simply TOOBASED

No games played over 6 months.

The Cut

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 9 games
44%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
17%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
TingleK1ng · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TingleK1ng · 4 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 4 games
0%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 4 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
390 picks · 214 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 1004 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 633 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
365 picks · 358 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
327 picks · 185 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
292 picks · 207 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
291 picks · 221 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
276 picks · 611 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 19%
Hero pool strength55% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:5
simply TOOBASED 59%The Cut 41%
The model gave 59% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by The Cut in 32:09.
Game 2prediction missed22:37
simply TOOBASED 59%The Cut 41%
The model gave 59% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by The Cut in 37:56.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 59%
Series resultThe Cut 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2