Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
SJTUloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team MayBewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SJTU
No games played over 6 months.
Team MayBe
Beastmasteroften banned
Puer tea · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Puer tea · 1 game
Lich
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
347 picks · 268 bans
Marci
302 picks · 550 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 214 bans
Undying
277 picks · 461 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 452 bans
Primal Beast
234 picks · 522 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 306 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% SJTU
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% SJTU
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
SJTU 58%Team MayBe 42%
The model gave 58% on SJTU — the game was taken by Team MayBe.
Game 2prediction missed
SJTU 58%Team MayBe 42%
The model gave 58% on SJTU — the game was taken by Team MayBe.
Model check result
Model favoriteSJTU · 58%
Series resultTeam MayBe 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2