Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionSESky Encore Esportswin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Atomic Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sky Encore Esports
Monkey Kingoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Atomic Esports
Morphlingoften banned
Marb · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
Marb · 1 game
Tiny
Nishababy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
349 picks · 268 bans
Marci
302 picks · 549 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 215 bans
Undying
276 picks · 459 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 455 bans
Primal Beast
233 picks · 521 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 308 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Atomic Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Atomic Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:29
Sky Encore Esports 49%Atomic Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by Atomic Esports in 42:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinAbat
Nature's ProphetMarb
53% · 13 games
Outworld DestroyerNishababy
Game 2prediction correct46:24
Sky Encore Esports 53%Atomic Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Sky Encore Esports — the game was taken by Sky Encore Esports in 41:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreAbat
Nature's ProphetMarb
little data
LeshracNishababy
Game 3prediction missed39:38
Sky Encore Esports 50%Atomic Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by Sky Encore Esports in 47:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingAbat
Nature's ProphetMarb
47% · 51 game
Ember SpiritNishababy
Model check result
Model favoriteAtomic Esports · 51%
Series resultSky Encore Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3