The International 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Soniqsloss 0:1series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:1
BOOM Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
BOOM Esports
Marssignature
Fbz · 33 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 24 games
Tiny
Yopaj · 22 games
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 18 games
Rubick
Tims · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Hoodwink
Tims · 14 games
Snapfire
Tims · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
534 picks · 404 bans
Marci
479 picks · 725 bans
Undying
309 picks · 515 bans
Death Prophet
305 picks · 480 bans
Puck
295 picks · 698 bans
Dawnbreaker
284 picks · 399 bans
Enigma
271 picks · 864 bans
Pangolier
265 picks · 369 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:29
Soniqs 29%BOOM Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 71%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1