The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Soniqsloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hokoriwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
523 picks · 398 bans
Marci
463 picks · 713 bans
Death Prophet
304 picks · 473 bans
Undying
296 picks · 500 bans
Puck
290 picks · 701 bans
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 397 bans
Enigma
262 picks · 842 bans
Snapfire
258 picks · 136 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Soniqs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:13
Soniqs 46%Hokori 54%
The model gave 54% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 36:59.
Game 2prediction correct32:27
Soniqs 46%Hokori 54%
The model gave 54% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 42:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 54%
Series resultHokori 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2