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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
South America Rejectsloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lavawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

South America Rejects

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Duster · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Mandy · 3 games
67%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
FCR · 2 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageoften banned
DFlash · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Duster · 2 games
50%
Underlord
Underlord
FCR · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
DFlash · 1 game
0%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Mandy · 1 game
0%

Lava

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
100%
Lich
Lich
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
371 picks · 356 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
337 picks · 321 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
264 picks · 497 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
251 picks · 575 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
246 picks · 458 bans
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
237 picks · 601 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
222 picks · 128 bans
47%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
217 picks · 140 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:25
South America Rejects 36%Lava 64%
The model gave 64% on Lava — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 37:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
Zeusmurd0c
48% · 21 game57% · 102 games
Crystal MaidenJimmyCoff666
Crystal Maiden
Morphling
MorphlingMandy
42% · 22 games
Timbersaw
TimbersawFCR
35% · 19 games
Rubick
RubickDFlash
44% · 32 games
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinDuster
50% · 8 games
Game 2prediction correct15:19
South America Rejects 35%Lava 65%
The model gave 65% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMandy
45% · 18 games56% · 130 games
ClockwerkJimmyCoff666
Clockwerk
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendmurd0c
50% · 16 games
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFCR
50% · 10 games
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDuster
34% · 52 games
Rubick
RubickDFlash
42% · 34 games
Game 3prediction correct18:44
South America Rejects 36%Lava 64%
The model gave 64% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 39:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMandy
43% · 19 games47% · 164 games
DawnbreakerJimmyCoff666
Dawnbreaker
Zeus
Zeusmurd0c
54% · 66 games
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderFCR
38% · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageDFlash
65% · 27 games
Tusk
TuskDuster
57% · 43 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 76%
Series resultLava 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3