DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
South America Rejectswin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ALIS VENTORUSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
South America Rejects
Hoodwink
Scofield · 12 games
Grimstroke
Scofield · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 10 games
Doomsignature
Frank · 9 games
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Wits · 8 games
ALIS VENTORUS
Hoodwinksignature
waveformn · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 7 games
Luna
paw · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Norma · 6 games
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 5 games
Rubick
waveformn · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 4 games
Tiny
Panda · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
588 picks · 503 bans
Tiny
524 picks · 411 bans
Hoodwink
493 picks · 252 bans
Phoenix
492 picks · 543 bans
Tusk
463 picks · 400 bans
Puck
390 picks · 917 bans
Shadow Demon
387 picks · 975 bans
Warlock
384 picks · 231 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% South America Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total89% South America Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:13
South America Rejects 73%ALIS VENTORUS 27%
The model gave 73% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 27:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingWits
Weaverpaw
BatriderFrank
Queen of PainPanda
SlardarDarkMago
PangolierNorma
PhoenixElmisho
Spirit Breakerwaveformn
GrimstrokeScofield
HoodwinkDelight
Game 2prediction correct36:12
South America Rejects 75%ALIS VENTORUS 25%
The model gave 75% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 34:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainDarkMago
Faceless Voidpaw
TinyWits
InvokerPanda
PangolierFrank
BeastmasterNorma
WindrangerScofield
Rubickwaveformn
OracleElmisho
TechiesDelight
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth America Rejects · 89%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2