DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
South America Rejectswin 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BBarrancoBarloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
South America Rejects
Tusk
Scofield · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 2 games
Phoenix
Elmisho · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
Sniperoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
Undying
Scofield · 2 games
BarrancoBar
Grimstroke
Accel · 3 games
Doomoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
bsK7- · 1 game
Bane
Accel · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Accel · 1 game
Disruptor
Accel · 1 game
Necrophos
bsK7- · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
649 picks · 685 bans
Tiny
528 picks · 449 bans
Tusk
503 picks · 420 bans
Phoenix
444 picks · 437 bans
Warlock
436 picks · 287 bans
Shadow Demon
410 picks · 1112 bans
Puck
405 picks · 869 bans
Hoodwink
402 picks · 186 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% BarrancoBar
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% South America Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
South America Rejects 61%BarrancoBar 39%
The model gave 61% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by BarrancoBar in 20:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoombsK7-
KunkkaDarkMago
PugnaAccel
Monkey KingWits
52% · 19 games
Night StalkerFrank
55% · 47 games
RubickElmisho
45% · 57 games
UndyingScofield
Game 2prediction correct31:43
South America Rejects 59%BarrancoBar 41%
The model gave 59% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 46:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunabsK7-
UrsaWits
PhoenixAccel
Ember SpiritDarkMago
57% · 93 games
SlardarFrank
42% · 30 games
EnchantressElmisho
56% · 53 games
SnapfireScofield
Game 3prediction missed21:30
South America Rejects 60%BarrancoBar 40%
The model gave 60% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by BarrancoBar in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsabsK7-
LunaWits
PhoenixAccel
Storm SpiritDarkMago
53% · 113 games
BatriderFrank
50% · 49 games
RubickElmisho
48% · 40 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth America Rejects · 70%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3