South America Rejects vs BTC Gaming — prediction DS2ЗК · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

South America Rejectswin 2:1

series probability

71%29%

probability at match start · final 2:1

BTC Gamingloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

South America Rejects

No games played over 6 months.

BTC Gaming

Disruptor

Prada · 5 games

40%

Nature's Prophet

Lumière · 5 games

40%

Chenoften banned

Prada · 3 games

33%

Clockwerk

Prada · 3 games

100%

Dragon Knightoften banned

Lumière · 3 games

33%

Huskaroften banned

Mnz · 3 games

100%

Ringmaster

Mjz · 3 games

67%

Shadow Demonoften banned

Mjz · 3 games

33%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

639 picks · 695 bans

49%

Tiny

517 picks · 450 bans

48%

Tusk

490 picks · 408 bans

50%

Warlock

433 picks · 288 bans

48%

Phoenix

415 picks · 386 bans

54%

Shadow Demon

394 picks · 1089 bans

56%

Puck

389 picks · 830 bans

52%

Mars

383 picks · 564 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%

Hero pool strength52% BTC Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total71% South America Rejects

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct26:14

South America Rejects 61%BTC Gaming 39%

The model gave 61% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 24:06.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo