DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
South America Rejectswin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
South America Rejects
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
Grimstroke
Scofield · 4 games
Kunkka
DarkMago · 4 games
Slardaroften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
Tusk
Scofield · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Wits · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 3 games
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 49 games
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 38 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 36 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 35 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 34 games
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
Pucksignature
Worick · 26 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
619 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
505 picks · 407 bans
Tusk
466 picks · 404 bans
Phoenix
441 picks · 483 bans
Hoodwink
426 picks · 205 bans
Warlock
409 picks · 255 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1036 bans
Puck
384 picks · 875 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:23
South America Rejects 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyWits
MedusaKami
DoomFrank
BristlebackNefrit
ViperDarkMago
InvokerWorick
VenomancerElmisho
TechiesdEsire
HoodwinkScofield
DisruptorMoOz
Game 2prediction missed30:10
South America Rejects 43%Zero Tenacity 57%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 21:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkWits
Lone DruidKami
Queen of PainDarkMago
TidehunterNefrit
DoomFrank
Sand KingWorick
RubickScofield
MuertadEsire
Shadow DemonElmisho
JakiroMoOz
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 58%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2