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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
South Teamwin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NoPing VPNloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

South Team

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
ArzenT · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ArzenT · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
MonHty · 4 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 2 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Wij · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
ArzenT · 2 games
50%

NoPing VPN

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
CHAAANNN · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
4dr · 2 games
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
hFn · 2 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Demon · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Demon · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Oscar · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Demon · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
420 picks · 612 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
375 picks · 386 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
362 picks · 145 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
357 picks · 472 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 579 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
321 picks · 155 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 667 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 436 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% South Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:30
South Team 43%NoPing VPN 57%
The model gave 57% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by South Team in 44:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightArgius
51% · 91 game57% · 27 games
UrsahFn
Ursa
Underlord
UnderlordHermit
44% · 62 games49% · 10 games
Shadow Fiend4dr
Shadow Fiend
49% · 38 games
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Centaur Warrunner
49% · 43 games
GyrocopterDemon
Gyrocopter
56% · 35 games
Crystal MaidenJupiter
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct36:24
South Team 44%NoPing VPN 56%
The model gave 56% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 50:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenArgius
52% · 129 games51% · 20 games
Chaos KnighthFn
Chaos Knight
Broodmother
BroodmotherHermit
55% · 29 games51% · 55 games
Tiny4dr
Tiny
51% · 54 games
BrewmasterOscar
Brewmaster
33% · 14 games
WarlockDemon
Warlock
43% · 15 games
MuertaJupiter
Muerta
Game 3prediction missed44:14
South Team 43%NoPing VPN 57%
The model gave 57% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by South Team in 25:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerArgius
47% · 187 games45% · 68 games
Tiny4dr
Tiny
Visage
VisageHermit
51% · 14 games47% · 26 games
SlardarOscar
Slardar
60% · 11 games
PudgehFn
Pudge
52% · 66 games
Crystal MaidenDemon
Crystal Maiden
63% · 30 games
MiranaJupiter
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 63%
Series resultSouth Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3