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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
Son GoKu · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
XCJ · 7 games
71%
Bane
Bane
XCJ · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XCJ · 5 games
80%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dstones · 5 games
40%
Razor
Razoroften banned
MS · 5 games
80%
Doom
Doom
Flyby · 4 games
75%
Io
Iooften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
75%

Aster.Aries

Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 9 games
44%
Io
Iooften banned
TK · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
TK · 6 games
50%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
phoenix · 6 games
50%
Razor
Razorsignature
Ulu · 6 games
83%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xwy · 6 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ulu · 5 games
40%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
TK · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
458 picks · 264 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 562 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
336 picks · 387 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
332 picks · 651 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 424 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
291 picks · 357 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
284 picks · 355 bans
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
265 picks · 562 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:20
Sparking Arrow Gaming 46%Aster.Aries 54%
The model gave 54% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 37:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyGhost
47% · 229 games48% · 186 games
MedusaUlu
Medusa
Kunkka
KunkkaDstones
51% · 191 game50% · 248 games
Ember SpiritXwy
Ember Spirit
Mirana
MiranaSon GoKu
52% · 190 games55% · 41 game
Slardar生死
Slardar
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionXCJ
51% · 132 games55% · 94 games
Ogre MagiRedPanda
Ogre Magi
45% · 173 games
IoTK
Io
Game 2prediction correct23:25
Sparking Arrow Gaming 42%Aster.Aries 58%
The model gave 58% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyGhost
53% · 166 games55% · 151 game
MedusaUlu
Medusa
Lina
LinaDstones
43% · 160 games51% · 83 games
Viper生死
Viper
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageSon GoKu
45% · 37 games49% · 68 games
TuskXwy
Tusk
Pugna
PugnaXCJ
53% · 29 games56% · 37 games
BrewmasterTK
Brewmaster
47% · 53 games
Shadow ShamanRedPanda
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 61%
Series resultAster.Aries 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2