Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingwin 2:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CDEC Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Elder Titan
XCJ · 3 games
Tusk
September · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Son GoKu · 2 games
Earth Spirit
September · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Dstones · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Son GoKu · 2 games
Brewmaster
Son GoKu · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Dstones · 1 game
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
154 picks · 272 bans
Puck
149 picks · 349 bans
Earth Spirit
136 picks · 113 bans
Void Spirit
131 picks · 192 bans
Phoenix
118 picks · 132 bans
Keeper of the Light
103 picks · 186 bans
Nyx Assassin
103 picks · 347 bans
Rubick
100 picks · 51 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength55% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:7
Sparking Arrow Gaming 35%CDEC Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 30:08.
Game 2prediction correct31:58
Sparking Arrow Gaming 35%CDEC Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 1:17:38.
Game 3prediction missed26:4
Sparking Arrow Gaming 35%CDEC Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 23:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 65%
Series resultSparking Arrow Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3