Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingwin 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDEC Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Axe
Son GoKu · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
Hoodwink
XCJ · 4 games
Phoenix
XCJ · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Night · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
7e · 3 games
Linaoften banned
7e · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
MS · 3 games
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
274 picks · 405 bans
Tidehunter
270 picks · 392 bans
Monkey King
259 picks · 644 bans
Bane
242 picks · 182 bans
Weaver
225 picks · 430 bans
Lina
219 picks · 473 bans
Lion
208 picks · 107 bans
Void Spirit
205 picks · 267 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:4
Sparking Arrow Gaming 39%CDEC Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 24:51.
Game 2prediction missed27:8
Sparking Arrow Gaming 39%CDEC Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 28:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 61%
Series resultSparking Arrow Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2