Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ybb Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Disruptorsignature
XCJ · 7 games
Snapfire
Son GoKu · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Flyby · 5 games
Hoodwink
XCJ · 5 games
Razoroften banned
MS · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
Son GoKu · 5 games
Bane
XCJ · 4 games
Iooften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
433 picks · 269 bans
Queen of Pain
386 picks · 492 bans
Weaver
353 picks · 493 bans
Mars
347 picks · 490 bans
Kunkka
284 picks · 475 bans
Wraith King
250 picks · 335 bans
Death Prophet
246 picks · 351 bans
Grimstroke
243 picks · 172 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Ybb Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:11
Sparking Arrow Gaming 48%Ybb Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 26:18.
Game 2prediction missed29:31
Sparking Arrow Gaming 48%Ybb Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 49:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteYbb Gaming · 52%
Series resultSparking Arrow Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2