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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
IHC Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SPAWN Team

Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 19 games
37%
Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 18 games
39%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 14 games
36%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 13 games
77%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
MamangDaya · 12 games
67%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Red · 10 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Jikroy · 10 games
60%

IHC Esports

Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 10 games
40%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Se · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 8 games
88%
Tusk
Tusksignature
ace12 · 8 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
ace12 · 7 games
29%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 5 games
40%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
717 picks · 513 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
578 picks · 509 bans
53%
Doom
Doom
561 picks · 1094 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
549 picks · 1231 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
540 picks · 593 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
468 picks · 926 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1049 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
458 picks · 660 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% SPAWN Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% SPAWN Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:32
SPAWN Team 56%IHC Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 38:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerJikroy
53% · 60 games47% · 172 games
Templar AssassinSancity
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierMamangDaya
49% · 375 games55% · 198 games
Broodmother423
Broodmother
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderwoMy
41% · 93 games53% · 227 games
Primal Beasteleven
Primal Beast
Snapfire
Snapfiredalul
46% · 305 games50% · 88 games
Shadow Demonace12
Shadow Demon
Silencer
SilencerTraVins
53% · 202 games54% · 350 games
BatriderSe
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed15:38
SPAWN Team 55%IHC Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 49:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJikroy
51% · 85 games45% · 144 games
Bloodseeker423
Bloodseeker
Brewmaster
BrewmasterwoMy
40% · 29 games49% · 99 games
Underlordeleven
Underlord
Puck
PuckMamangDaya
54% · 92 games54% · 65 games
RikiSancity
Riki
Techies
Techiesdalul
48% · 149 games48% · 101 game
Shadow Demonace12
Shadow Demon
Silencer
SilencerTraVins
51% · 110 games57% · 56 games
LionSe
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteSPAWN Team · 59%
Series resultIHC Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2