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BTS Pro Series Season 14: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamloss 1:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Polaris Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SPAWN Team

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
TraVins · 11 games
45%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
dalul · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
TraVins · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
TraVins · 8 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
dalul · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 7 games
57%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Jikroy · 6 games
83%

Polaris Esports

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Force · 9 games
33%
Lina
Linasignature
Mac · 8 games
75%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boomy · 8 games
88%
Lich
Lich
Eyyou · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 5 games
80%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Boomy · 5 games
80%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Force · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
414 picks · 423 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
399 picks · 380 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
395 picks · 268 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
302 picks · 310 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
264 picks · 308 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
244 picks · 130 bans
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
217 picks · 153 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
210 picks · 579 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 75%
Hero pool strength54% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
SPAWN Team 40%Polaris Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by SPAWN Team.
Game 2prediction correct
SPAWN Team 40%Polaris Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2