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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SPAWN Team

Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 16 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
TraVins · 14 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 12 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
TraVins · 12 games
42%
Marci
Marcioften banned
dalul · 11 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Jikroy · 11 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptor
TraVins · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 9 games
56%

Polaris Esports

Marci
Marcisignature
Boomy · 11 games
82%
Lina
Linasignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Lich
Lichsignature
Eyyou · 9 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Force · 9 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Force · 7 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Akashi · 6 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
512 picks · 348 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 482 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
477 picks · 421 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
359 picks · 415 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
355 picks · 341 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
305 picks · 160 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
277 picks · 690 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
268 picks · 632 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:31
SPAWN Team 38%Polaris Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 56:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaJikroy
57% · 114 games57% · 68 games
SlarkAkashi
Slark
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
52% · 137 games43% · 164 games
Nature's ProphetBok
Nature's Prophet
Snapfire
Snapfiredalul
43% · 184 games48% · 290 games
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderRed
40% · 39 games51% · 50 games
Dark Willowcml
Dark Willow
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorTraVins
59% · 164 games47% · 66 games
RikiJing
Riki
Game 2prediction correct17:33
SPAWN Team 37%Polaris Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJikroy
43% · 164 games48% · 294 games
LinaMac
Lina
Tiny
TinyMamangDaya
48% · 556 games52% · 158 games
Faceless VoidAkashi
Faceless Void
Rubick
Rubickdalul
53% · 365 games48% · 435 games
TuskBok
Tusk
Magnus
MagnusRed
56% · 73 games52% · 341 game
MiranaJing
Mirana
Phoenix
PhoenixTraVins
52% · 126 games49% · 56 games
Dark Willowcml
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 71%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2