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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rectifyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SPAWN Team

Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 27 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 23 games
39%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 20 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 18 games
44%
Marci
Marcioften banned
dalul · 14 games
36%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
MamangDaya · 13 games
54%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
TraVins · 13 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Jikroy · 12 games
58%

Rectify

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MangO · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 7 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sans · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
Ponyo · 7 games
43%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Ws · 5 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
Ws · 5 games
20%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sans · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
737 picks · 614 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 484 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
425 picks · 1037 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
402 picks · 672 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 982 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 374 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
391 picks · 610 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
382 picks · 206 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% SPAWN Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% SPAWN Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:36
SPAWN Team 52%Rectify 48%
The model gave 52% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by Rectify in 46:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawwoMy
54% · 82 games54% · 65 games
MedusaMarb
Medusa
Windranger
WindrangerJikroy
39% · 41 game37% · 33 games
Legion CommanderWs
Legion Commander
Underlord
UnderlordMamangDaya
52% · 74 games44% · 223 games
Ember SpiritWonder'boy
Ember Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magedalul
48% · 96 games56% · 15 games
ClinkzHated
Clinkz
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTraVins
52% · 125 games60% · 82 games
TechiesSans
Techies
Game 2prediction correct40:36
SPAWN Team 54%Rectify 46%
The model gave 54% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 49:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJikroy
48% · 120 games53% · 175 games
DoomWs
Doom
Axe
AxewoMy
48% · 17 games48% · 97 games
UrsaMarb
Ursa
Clinkz
Clinkzdalul
46% · 11 games55% · 110 games
Storm SpiritWonder'boy
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMamangDaya
48% · 262 games53% · 34 games
Bounty HunterHated
Bounty Hunter
Oracle
OracleTraVins
50% · 31 game46% · 25 games
LionSans
Lion
Game 3prediction correct47:22
SPAWN Team 51%Rectify 49%
The model gave 51% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 45:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingJikroy
49% · 101 game63% · 62 games
Naga SirenMarb
Naga Siren
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMamangDaya
42% · 37 games55% · 69 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderwoMy
38% · 40 games55% · 46 games
Void SpiritWonder'boy
Void Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magedalul
43% · 75 games56% · 75 games
TechiesSans
Techies
Oracle
OracleTraVins
47% · 28 games43% · 29 games
Ancient ApparitionHated
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteSPAWN Team · 55%
Series resultSPAWN Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3