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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UD Vessuwanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SPAWN Team

Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 21 game
48%
Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 19 games
37%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 15 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Jikroy · 13 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
MamangDaya · 13 games
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Jikroy · 12 games
58%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Red · 10 games
40%

UD Vessuwan

Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 19 games
37%
Mirana
Mirana
LionaX · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Beebie · 13 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
LionaX · 12 games
25%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LionaX · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
boombell · 10 games
0%
Undying
Undyingsignature
LionaX · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
743 picks · 593 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
610 picks · 529 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
553 picks · 1098 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
551 picks · 1308 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
488 picks · 549 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
468 picks · 951 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
461 picks · 1132 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
452 picks · 643 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% SPAWN Team
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total65% SPAWN Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:22
SPAWN Team 60%UD Vessuwan 40%
The model gave 60% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 46:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJikroy
49% · 153 games47% · 140 games
AlchemistKNP
Alchemist
Broodmother
BroodmotherwoMy
50% · 67 games44% · 128 games
WindrangerBeebie
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierMamangDaya
56% · 310 games47% · 305 games
Batriderboombell
Batrider
Techies
Techiesdalul
56% · 189 games47% · 253 games
UndyingLionaX
Undying
Venomancer
VenomancerTraVins
57% · 107 games
Game 2prediction missed8:33
SPAWN Team 59%UD Vessuwan 41%
The model gave 59% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 28:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageJikroy
49% · 46 games53% · 67 games
Naga SirenKNP
Naga Siren
Timbersaw
TimbersawwoMy
48% · 141 game51% · 103 games
Storm SpiritBeebie
Storm Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMamangDaya
58% · 127 games51% · 250 games
Batriderboombell
Batrider
Windranger
Windrangerdalul
38% · 89 games56% · 72 games
PugnaLionaX
Pugna
Venomancer
VenomancerTraVins
47% · 89 games
Game 3prediction correct18:6
SPAWN Team 59%UD Vessuwan 41%
The model gave 59% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 45:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJikroy
63% · 110 games55% · 136 games
MedusaKNP
Medusa
Pangolier
PangolierMamangDaya
47% · 329 games43% · 248 games
Void SpiritBeebie
Void Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterwoMy
52% · 313 games44% · 641 game
Rubickboombell
Rubick
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightdalul
51% · 192 games47% · 165 games
PugnaLionaX
Pugna
Silencer
SilencerTraVins
51% · 246 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSPAWN Team · 65%
Series resultSPAWN Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3