Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XERXIAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SPAWN Team
Tusksignature
dalul · 15 games
Mirana
TraVins · 12 games
Silencer
TraVins · 11 games
Morphlingsignature
Jikroy · 10 games
Disruptor
TraVins · 9 games
Rubick
TraVins · 9 games
Tinysignature
dalul · 8 games
Marcioften banned
dalul · 7 games
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
486 picks · 330 bans
Tusk
482 picks · 465 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 410 bans
Mirana
342 picks · 335 bans
Treant Protector
338 picks · 385 bans
Snapfire
292 picks · 155 bans
Ember Spirit
266 picks · 666 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 621 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 29%
Hero pool strength54% SPAWN Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% SPAWN Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:21
SPAWN Team 53%XERXIA 47%
The model gave 53% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 47:55.
Game 2prediction correct49:20
SPAWN Team 53%XERXIA 47%
The model gave 53% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 41:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPAWN Team · 53%
Series resultSPAWN Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2