BTS Pro Series Season 13: ЮВА · BO2
result vs predictionSSPAWNwin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SPAWN
No games played over 6 months.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
380 picks · 582 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 245 bans
Undying
330 picks · 568 bans
Enigma
248 picks · 761 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 330 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 447 bans
Death Prophet
215 picks · 327 bans
Tusk
214 picks · 98 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 27%
Hero pool strength50% SPAWN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct55:48
SPAWN 37%Lilgun 63%
The model gave 63% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 58:25.
Game 2prediction correct37:43
SPAWN 37%Lilgun 63%
The model gave 63% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 44:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 63%
Series resultSPAWN 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2