Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Chicken Fighterswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
No games played over 6 months.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Void Spirit
8 picks · 8 bans
Mars
7 picks · 16 bans
Brewmaster
5 picks · 2 bans
Earth Spirit
5 picks · 4 bans
Ember Spirit
5 picks · 5 bans
Ogre Magi
5 picks · 0 bans
Tiny
5 picks · 4 bans
Bloodseeker
4 picks · 1 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Spider Pigzs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:34
Spider Pigzs 50%Chicken Fighters 50%
The model gave 50% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 30:13.
Game 2prediction correct33:17
Spider Pigzs 50%Chicken Fighters 50%
The model gave 50% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 39:56.
Game 3prediction missed30:34
Spider Pigzs 50%Chicken Fighters 50%
The model gave 50% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 52:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 50%
Series resultChicken Fighters 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3