Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Creepwavewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Linasignature
No!ob · 11 games
Rubick
dnz · 11 games
Brewmaster
Mitch · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 7 games
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 7 games
Clockwerk
dnz · 6 games
Void Spiritsignature
No!ob · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 5 games
Creepwave
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 13 games
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 12 games
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
Marssignature
ATF · 10 games
Lichsignature
Fishman · 9 games
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 9 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
219 picks · 465 bans
Void Spirit
193 picks · 255 bans
Mars
191 picks · 349 bans
Earth Spirit
177 picks · 142 bans
Keeper of the Light
149 picks · 245 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 177 bans
Nyx Assassin
143 picks · 467 bans
Rubick
132 picks · 80 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 76%
Hero pool strength58% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total59% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:8
Spider Pigzs 44%Creepwave 56%
The model gave 56% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 29:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNo!ob
JuggernautCrystallis
Monkey Kinglil pleb
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
BeastmasterMitch
Void SpiritATF
Earthshakerdnz
Nyx AssassinMiLAN
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
PhoenixFishman
Game 2prediction correct17:36
Spider Pigzs 43%Creepwave 57%
The model gave 57% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 36:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursalil pleb
Monkey KingCrystallis
ZeusNo!ob
Outworld DestroyerMalr1ne
Death ProphetMitch
Sand KingATF
Clockwerkdnz
PhoenixMiLAN
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
AbaddonFishman
Game 3prediction correct25:38
Spider Pigzs 42%Creepwave 58%
The model gave 58% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNo!ob
Wraith KingCrystallis
Juggernautlil pleb
Night StalkerATF
MarsMitch
Void SpiritMalr1ne
Shadow Shamandnz
RubickMiLAN
GrimstrokeLeBronDota
AbaddonFishman
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 59%
Series resultCreepwave 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3