Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Linasignature
No!ob · 13 games
Rubick
dnz · 12 games
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 10 games
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 8 games
Shadow Shamansignature
dnz · 8 games
Clockwerk
dnz · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 7 games
No Bounty Hunter
Earth Spiritsignature
dEsire · 10 games
Rubick
ntakii · 9 games
Pucksignature
ntakii · 8 games
Bloodseekersignature
BliNcc · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
ntakii · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Flash · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Flash · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Flash · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
259 picks · 532 bans
Void Spirit
234 picks · 295 bans
Mars
215 picks · 385 bans
Earth Spirit
201 picks · 155 bans
Keeper of the Light
172 picks · 307 bans
Phoenix
168 picks · 197 bans
Nyx Assassin
165 picks · 537 bans
Wraith King
163 picks · 215 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:52
Spider Pigzs 53%No Bounty Hunter 47%
The model gave 53% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 40:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNo!ob
LifestealerkAAN
RikiThuG
Void Spiritntakii
Sand KingMitch
Death ProphetBliNcc
Shadow Shamandnz
Nyx AssassindEsire
BrewmasterLeBronDota
GrimstrokeFlash
Game 2prediction correct24:14
Spider Pigzs 54%No Bounty Hunter 46%
The model gave 54% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 32:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaThuG
BristlebackkAAN
Death ProphetNo!ob
Void Spiritntakii
Legion CommanderMitch
MarsBliNcc
Earthshakerdnz
RubickdEsire
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Keeper of the LightFlash
Game 3prediction missed26:42
Spider Pigzs 56%No Bounty Hunter 44%
The model gave 56% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaThuG
LycankAAN
Death ProphetNo!ob
GrimstrokeBliNcc
BeastmasterMitch
Razorntakii
Shadow Shamandnz
Nyx AssassinFlash
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
EarthshakerdEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 58%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3