The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzswin 2:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Bald Rebornloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 17 games
Rubick
dnz · 16 games
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 15 games
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 13 games
Linasignature
No!ob · 13 games
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 11 games
Clockwerk
dnz · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 11 games
Team Bald Reborn
Grimstrokesignature
Pablo · 7 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
5up · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 4 games
Enigmaoften banned
5up · 3 games
Hoodwink
Rajjix · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Gorgc · 3 games
Tiny
Excalibur · 3 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Gorgc · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
477 picks · 191 bans
Snapfire
378 picks · 208 bans
Mars
364 picks · 592 bans
Puck
358 picks · 872 bans
Grimstroke
332 picks · 309 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 451 bans
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 409 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:12
Spider Pigzs 42%Team Bald Reborn 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 36:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaKoma`
Drow RangerGorgc
InvokerNo!ob
PuckExcalibur
Night StalkerFunn1k
Dark SeerRajjix
Liondnz
Nyx AssassinPablo
EnchantressLeBronDota
Abaddonpieliedie
Game 2prediction correct26:41
Spider Pigzs 41%Team Bald Reborn 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 1:11:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeKoma`
MorphlingExcalibur
Void SpiritNo!ob
Chaos KnightGorgc
ViperFunn1k
PangolierRajjix
Snapfirednz
HoodwinkPablo
Treant ProtectorLeBronDota
Phoenixpieliedie
Game 3prediction missed37:12
Spider Pigzs 41%Team Bald Reborn 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 29:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinKoma`
TidehunterRajjix
TimbersawFunn1k
Void SpiritExcalibur
InvokerNo!ob
RazorGorgc
JakiroLeBronDota
Grimstrokepieliedie
Liondnz
Nyx AssassinPablo
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 65%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3