?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
V-Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spider Pigzs

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 17 games
47%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 15 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 14 games
43%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 13 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 13 games
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 12 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 11 games
55%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 22 games
68%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 14 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 13 games
38%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 12 games
50%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 12 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
laise · 12 games
75%
Viper
Viperoften banned
hAze · 12 games
58%
Axe
Axeoften banned
laise · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
434 picks · 187 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
340 picks · 133 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 631 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
300 picks · 682 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
294 picks · 463 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
287 picks · 516 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
277 picks · 351 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
263 picks · 354 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:34
Spider Pigzs 42%V-Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 28:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreCrystallis
53% · 74 games46% · 106 games
GyrocopterTA2000
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNo!ob
40% · 258 games48% · 438 games
PuckhAze
Puck
Mars
MarsFunn1k
53% · 281 game57% · 178 games
Dragon Knightlaise
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
46% · 150 games58% · 175 games
MiranaArrOw
Mirana
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeLeBronDota
47% · 200 games51% · 66 games
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct9:31
Spider Pigzs 42%V-Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 31:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerCrystallis
54% · 46 games48% · 147 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
49% · 112 games45% · 314 games
PuckhAze
Puck
Broodmother
BroodmotherFunn1k
47% · 46 games56% · 15 games
Night Stalkerlaise
Night Stalker
Lion
LionOmaR
48% · 315 games57% · 93 games
Shadow DemonArrOw
Shadow Demon
Abaddon
AbaddonLeBronDota
47% · 163 games56% · 113 games
Winter WyvernMalady
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 64%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2