Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Winstrike Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Rubick
dnz · 15 games
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 14 games
Linasignature
No!ob · 13 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 12 games
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 11 games
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 10 games
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 9 games
Winstrike Team
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 7 games
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 7 games
Void Spiritsignature
re1bl · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
re1bl · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
317 picks · 646 bans
Void Spirit
301 picks · 368 bans
Mars
257 picks · 441 bans
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 196 bans
Rubick
210 picks · 108 bans
Nyx Assassin
203 picks · 620 bans
Keeper of the Light
200 picks · 403 bans
Phoenix
199 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:29
Spider Pigzs 45%Winstrike Team 55%
The model gave 55% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 46:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetNo!ob
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
Dark SeerMitch
Timbersawchshrct
JuggernautYuma
Void Spiritre1bl
ClockwerkFervian
PhoenixHellscream
OracleLeBronDota
Winter WyvernPanto
Game 2prediction correct21:35
Spider Pigzs 43%Winstrike Team 57%
The model gave 57% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinYuma
Broodmotherre1bl
LycanLeBronDota
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
GrimstrokeNo!ob
Pangolierchshrct
Nature's ProphetMitch
RubickHellscream
Shadow ShamanFervian
UndyingPanto
Game 3prediction correct22:48
Spider Pigzs 47%Winstrike Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 44:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingYuma
Lifestealerdyrachyo
PuckNo!ob
Brewmasterchshrct
Dark SeerMitch
Void Spiritre1bl
Nyx AssassinFervian
PhoenixHellscream
JakiroLeBronDota
DisruptorPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 58%
Series resultWinstrike Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3