PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingwin 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ascent Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spiky Gaming
Dark Willowoften banned
Hara · 5 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Hara · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Manic · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 2 games
Ascent Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
420 picks · 309 bans
Hoodwink
415 picks · 438 bans
Weaver
394 picks · 823 bans
Tiny
391 picks · 887 bans
Phoenix
362 picks · 712 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 513 bans
Clockwerk
351 picks · 483 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 533 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Ascent Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Spiky Gaming 58%Ascent Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Ascent Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
Spiky Gaming 58%Ascent Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming.
Game 3prediction correct
Spiky Gaming 58%Ascent Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 58%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3